Apparently IDG Hasn't Gotten the Memo...

That the Wii is not the GameCube. I mean, they've got to be kidding. They could not have prediced the response the DS has received, nor are they accurately predicting how excited gamers are about the Wii, or the fact that the Wii is targeting a new demographic. Like the iPod, the Wii has potential to totally floor analysts like this, because it goes beyond standard markets. It does something new. The headline probably should have run:

Analyst: IDG To Keep Smoking Crack Through 2009

The other interesting piece is that Nintendo hasn't even thought about "next-gen" yet. They view the Wii as pushing current gen games into a new market. Providing a new means of interaction and more broadly appealing titles. It's got more to do with new markets than with next-gen, which is obviously something that IDG didn't get. If Nintendo were doing precisely what they'd done before, they'd probably be right. But since they're not, they're likely wrong.

Gamasutra - Analyst: Xbox 360 To Keep U.S. Lead Through 2009

For 2007, IDG predicts Microsoft dominance for the next two years in the North American next-gen game hardware market, at least in terms of installed base. The forecast predicts 10.6 million consoles in homes for Xbox 360, 6.8 million for PlayStation 3, and a modest 3.5 million for Wii in 2007. In 2008, Anderson suggests 15.5 million units in homes for the 360, 13.5 million for PS3, and 6.8 million for Wii. He does mention that his group expects the PS3 to win out in the installed based race in the end, perhaps in 2009.