?!? 90% of US Nintendo DS Users are Pirates ?!?

[Cross Posted from www.ishotthecyborg.com]

I'm not that big into the use of massive punctuation, but I really couldn't help myself in this case. Apparently, 90% of US Nintendo DS users are using devices like the R4 or the DSTT to pirate software for the Nintendo DS. That would mean that only one of my fellow friends with DSs should NOT have one of these. Except that as far as I know, I'm the ONLY person with one of these in the area, and I don't use mine for piracy.

PocketGamer.co.uk - 90 Percent of US Gamers are Playing Pirated Software

UK trade body ELSPA has claimed that an astonishing 90 per cent of of all DS users in North America are playing pirated games using devices such as the notorious R4 cartridge.

Not only does this reek of simply made up numbers, it should be noted that these devices have more than one use. You can use them to play video files, MP3s, or *gasp* develop your own DS games. And it seems that only the boys over at GayGamer.net have managed to hit the nail on the head.

GayGamer.net - You are All Pirates (According to the Entertainment & Leisure Software Publishers Association)

Kudos on that outlandish statistic, 90% of us use the R4 to pirate software. Working on a sample (IE: everyone I've ever met) the number of people I've seen with one of these is a big zero. The article reeks of fear mongering, essentially he's trying to get anti-piracy laws changed in Scotland by scaring the crap out of game retailers, which can in turn lobby the government to make third party bootable DS cartridges illegal. After all, if they outlaw these, it would increase their potential profits by 900%.

I guess this means that likely in the coming months Nintendo will continue to pursue legal action against these companies (you cannot find many R4s any more, though there are alternatives...). In the mean time I continue to import them one or two at a time in an effort to protect my right to speak on my DS (Yes, I'm stockpiling them out of principle). I wonder if they'll raid my apartment hoping to find gobs of pirated ROMs, and will rather find one highly peeved no-longer-Nintendo enthusiast.

C-out

At Least I've Got Carmack On My Side

[Cross Posted from Over at IShotTheCyborg.Com]

IGN had an interview recently with Id's John Carmack on bringing Orcs & Elves to the Nintendo DS. I was particularly interested in a comment he made about homebrew development on the system.

IGN: Since this is your first Nintendo DS project, what was it like poking at the hardware?

Carmack: It was probably the most fun platform that I have personally worked on. The early consoles that I worked on (SNES, Genesis-32X, and Jaguar) had fun hardware and full documentation, but a lousy development tool chain. A lot of later consoles had much better development tools, but they started playing secretive with the exact hardware specs, at least around console introduction time.

While there are a few nooks on the DS that aren't documented, they weren't things I cared about, so to me it was almost perfect. It is a shame that homebrew development can't be officially sanctioned and supported, because it would be a wonderful platform for a modern generation of programmers to be able to get a real feel for low level design work, to be contrasted with the high level web and application work that so many entry level people start with.

Having just written about the interesting catch-22 which developers are put in (in the US at least) of being expected to know how to do things that they don't have access to. I've said for a long time that the N64 would be a great platform for developers to learn on, and it's not like it's making Nintendo any money on licensing any more. But opening up the DS to sanctioned homebrew development a la XNA Express sounds like an even better idea to me.

I got a chance to play with DS development while in India and it was a fun system to work with. I also think it's a great platform for designers, engineers, and artists to cut their teeth on, because it provides interesting design elements (two screens, one touch sensitive) with pretty capable hardware. I also imagine that Nintendo could make a lot of money on some sort of cart+memory system that allowed people to both do sanctioned homebrew, and could download games from some homebrew repository and upload them to the DS, or even a DS downloadable content "store".

My only hesitation really is that US publishers really haven't figured out the DS. So would the opening up of homebrew just be an excuse for them to continue offloading their R&D onto those with no budgets or experience? What's the logic to innovate if you can get it for free? I know I'm being a bit cynical, but I've been watching publishers kill innovative DS titles for four years now, so that cynicism is rooted in experience not just dogmatism.

Of course they're concerned about piracy now. They used to be worried about production, and they're probably worried about branding a bit still. They don't want porn games on the DS. But ultimately I think they've moved on to being concerned about piracy. But isn't that happening already? Is that fear worth the continued infancy of production methods in the industry? Didn't they just say that they use "natural selection"? It's kind of hard to have natural selection when you have legally backed up birth control flowing through the water system. Wouldn't this encourage greater species diversity?

On a related note... I've recently imported from Hong Kong one of these "unofficial homebrew solutions" for the DS. In part because I fear that Nintendo will attempt to wipe them off the face of the planet with recent efforts. Why? Because part of my dissertation is going to be interactive and on the DS. Homebrew needs to start pitching itself as speech, and if my dissertation is illegal, then so be it. It's also going to be Creative Commons and the source code is going to be in the appendix.

This is PRECISELY why we need More Homebrew

Not because we need MAME ported. Not so I can run my old Amiga games. This is why we need homebrew and why Nintendo ought to be opening up their platforms a bit more.

The thing of course to keep in mind here is that these guys are technically doing something illegal. It is illegal because of the DMCA. They have circumvented encrypted means of copy protection. It is an unfortunate state of affairs, but I certainly hope that what they've managed to do can be an argument for more development on consoles like the Nintendo DS.

I guess my only hope at this point is that they'll open source whatever tools and SDK's they've managed to create on the DS homebrew side. Not likely though. Game developers seem to not like sharing very much.

The other thing I find fascinating is that of course response to this kind of thing has been "phenomenal." Of course it is. We're finally seeing some game content that breaks out of the mold of the last 10 years. Of course gamers and even developers are excited about this.

Kotaku - Feature: In Plundr Size Matters

The team showed off a little of that magic recently at the Where 2.0 conference where they announced that they would be bringing pirate-themed game Plundr to the DS, hopefully within the next year. In the game you sail from island to island a ship, buying, selling and fighting for goods. But to sail around the uncharted seas you'll need to get up, get outside and travel. The game will use a special form of positioning software that will rely on the Wi-Fi built into the DS.

"We built a prototype for the DS, it's homebrew at the moment, we are beginning talks with publishers about how to bring the game to the market and develop other location based games for the DS. We are also interested in the PSP," said Area Code co-founder Frank Lantz. "The response we've received about this online has been absolutely phenomenal."
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The idea is that people will come to establish their own trade groups, so they're not, as it were, just ships passing in the night. The routes between the locations in the real world often traveled to, like the office and the home, will become trade routes.
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"The emerging network, that is the real world, that is the platform we are developing for," Slavin added. "There's a scenario in Plundr's development where some people are playing on their phone, on their DS, on their PSP but the world they play in will be persistent."

Is this BAD or GOOD for the Industry?

It's interesting that Todd Mitchell's analysis of Nintendo's success is labeled broadly as "bad or good" for the industry. I think the answer is probably more likely that it's good for the industry and bad for publishers. But really that "bad" for the publishers is good in the long run, because it's going to force them to think differently than they've been thinking for quite a while.

Of course the current generation of DS and Wii games coming out of Nintendo is going to sell well. It's some of the more innovative stuff showing up out there. Just like Little Big Planet is going to sell like hot-cakes or why Katamari or Shadow of the Colossus sold well. New and interesting.

Selling a derivative title on a system like the DS or Wii with all of it's available resources isn't going to entice consumers.

While this might "bode poorly for the publishers" right now, perhaps it will force them out of the current rut that they've fallen into lately. And of course Nintendo is going to have some lead time on everyone else. Isn't that why they keep it internal? It gives them some time to milk their product while everyone else catches up.

I'm not necessarily a fan of that model, but I understand why they're doing it. And long term, hopefully publishers internalize this new idea that thinking outside the box is good.

In the mean time Nintendo needs to do a better job of courting independents, getting them to bring new and innovative titles directly to them, because right now the big publishers just don't know how to handle this newfangled stuff.

Analyst: Are Wii And DS Good For The Market?

As reported, Nintendo's fiscal 2007 report showed 23.56 million DS units and 5.84 million Wiis sold, with 123.55 million units of DS software, and 23.84 million units of Wii software -- all far above original expectations from the company and analysts alike.

Much of that software success, however, came from Nintendo itself, with New Super Mario Bros. moving 9.5 million copies, Brain Age selling 8.1 million copies and Nintendogs pushing 7.0 million, with newcomers Pokemon Diamond and Pearl already selling 5.2 million in Japan alone. Wii software, too, was similarly first party dominated by The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess and unbundled versions of Wii Sports.

All of this, says Mitchell, leads him to believe that "Nintendo's success with the DS and Wii bodes poorly for the publishers."

"Both [the Wii and DS] appear to be bringing new gamers into the market. However, this may not be a positive dynamic for the major video game publishers. Nintendo has not only increased the size of the market, but it has also re-segmented it in its own favor, in our view," he said.

"Nintendo is dominating software sales on its popular hardware platforms, leaving the publishers with a smaller slice of an only somewhat incrementally larger pie," added Mitchell, "Moreover, we feel that the likely shorter product cycles of Nintendo's platforms puts the publishers in a permanent catch-up mode."

Despite the ramp up of various third party publishers turning more development efforts to both the DS and Wii platforms, Mitchell concludes that Nintendo's domination of the software landscape isn't a trend due to end anytime soon, adding, "the upcoming releases of Super Mario Galaxy and Metroid Prime 3: Corruption will highlight this phenomena this holiday season."

Publishers "Scrambling" to Understand the Wii

This is an interesting article about publishers now figuring out that the Wii is a pretty good idea. Well, that's true, but I think they're going to have a lot harder time figuring out how to market and make games for the Wii. Much like US Publishers have had one hell of a time figuring out how to make games and market them for the DS, the Wii is going to prove just as difficult.

Sure all the basic games ought to make it out for the Wii (I'm holding out for hockey on the Wii), they're going to have to try some new stuff. Much like US publishers "don't get" the DS, they're going to take some time to figure out the Wii as well.

Hell, I consider Guitar Hero a prime example of how backward looking most publishers are. It took a new fringe publishing company to make GH happen. Of course they then get bought up by a company looking to extract maximum profit from the franchise, but it's sad that it takes these small forward looking companies to get gamers (and game developers) a chance to try new things.

Try new things. The Wii and DS are the cheapest platforms you can develop for. The risk has never been lower.

Bloomberg: Publishers 'Scrambling' to Get More Titles on Wii

With Nintendo's Wii having sold 3.56 million units in Japan and the U.S., the unique motion-sensing enabled system is already a bona fide success at this early stage in the console wars. While many anticipated the Wii to do well thanks to its positive E3 showing last year and all the hype generated up to its launch, Nintendo's new console has done probably even better than many expected.

According to Bloomberg.com, publishers were simply taken by surprise, with the exception of a few (like Ubisoft). "Those companies are backtracking," remarked Piper Jaffray analyst Anthony Gikas. "They're going to need to get their best-branded product on that platform. That will take a good nine to 12 months."
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While supporting any new console is generally a risky proposition, Ubisoft has believed in the Wii from the very beginning. The French publisher released 7 titles for the Nintendo platform in December and has another 6 games in the pipeline to be released by this June. "It's not really a bet anymore," said Ubisoft's Tony Key, head of marketing in the U.S. "It's a viable system that's going to make us money."

Indeed, games on the Wii cost (on average) far less to develop than on Xbox 360 or PS3, potentially saving publishers millions. Furthermore, according to research firm IDC, publishers will continue to be pressured into supporting the Wii as its install base grows. IDC is predicting that Nintendo will ship 16.1 million Wiis this year, outpacing 9.87 Xbox 360s and 9.1 million PlayStation 3s.

Publishers: DS Could be Best Selling Video Game Platform Ever... Without our help.

So, this piece of news is really interesting. It's interesting to me because it seems so blatantly obvious that there is a goatload of money to be made off of the DS, yet publishers are actually not supporting the platform in any sort of gun-ho fashion. Instead they're being timid with a platform that for all ostensible purposes is one of the cheapest out there to develop for, perhaps save the web. But you know, risk has never been the name of the game for most publishers.

DS Could Be Best Selling Video Game Platform Ever

Naturally video game publishers are going to want a piece of the portable pie. The opportunities are many. "Historically, Nintendo has been able to dominate the portable game market by developing games specifically suited for the unique attributes of the portable platform. However, there is growing opportunity for third party publishers and developers of portable games," DFC said. "... publishers of not only casual games, but even developers of high-end PC games like role-playing (RPG), massively multiplayer online games (MMOGs) and turn-based strategy, could benefit from the rising use of portable platforms among adults. Meanwhile, existing console game publishers have found it is possible to make over $100 million in revenue from a single PSP title based on the right franchise."

Ouch... GBA Outsells PS3

Numbers like these are always highly interpretable, but things definitely look good for Nintendo at the moment. My only hesitation really is that the only software titles in the top 10 for Nintendo systems are First Party titles, meaning that they're made by Nintendo.

If you look at the other platforms (360 for example, or the PS2) they're third party titles. Nintendo is going to have to not only work with developers to get more software onto their systems, but they're really going to have to encourage publishers to take some chances with new material.

Breaking: Nintendo Dominates February; Total Industry Sales Up 53%

Taking a closer look at the data, it's clear that Nintendo is dominating. On the hardware front the DS sold more than any other platform with 485K units, followed by the Wii with 335K units. The PS2 once again outsold the Xbox 360, 295K vs. 228K. Meanwhile, the PS3 sold a disappointing 127K, far below analysts' estimate of 200K. In fact, the old GBA even outsold the PS3, with 136K. Sony's PSP managed to sell 176K. Finally, trailing the pack (essentially on life support) was the GameCube with 24K.
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1. Crackdown (Xbox 360) – Microsoft – 427K
2. Wii Play w/ remote (Wii) – Nintendo – 371K
3. Diddy Kong Racing (DS) – Nintendo – 262K
4. Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess (Wii) – Nintendo – 130K
5. Guitar Hero 2 w/ guitar (PS2) – Activision – 130K
6. Gears of War (Xbox 360) – Microsoft – 119K
7. Major League Baseball 2K7 (Xbox 360) – Take-Two – 113K
8. Lost Planet: Extreme Condition (Xbox 360) – Capcom – 111K
9. WarioWare: Smooth Moves (Wii) – Nintendo – 109K
10. NBA Street Homecourt (Xbox 360) – Electronic Arts – 102K

Analyst: Next-Gen Underperforming; PS3 Price Cut 'Critical'

With PS3 sales not meeting expectations, at this point Patel said that a price cut on the hardware is "critical," but the analyst does not foresee that happening until at least the start of Sony's next fiscal year (April), and even that is a "long-shot," Patel stated.

To put the PS3's situation in context, Patel said, "PS3 consoles are available at retail but sales are lackluster. Its 130K units sold in February was less than Xbox 360 sales last year (160K) and even less than the original Xbox sales of 140K in Feb-2002."

Deutsche Bank was equally unimpressed with the Xbox 360, however. "Particularly disappointing is Xbox 360 HW sales of 230K in February, which puts its installed base at 5mn or in-line to the original Xbox which was an unproven console and faced substantial competition from the PS2," Patel noted.

Of Course We Don't GET IT... We Don't HAVE IT!

I recently read the lower two articles about American developers having a difficult time developing for the DS, which I at first wrote off to conservatism of US based publishing companies. However, then I read the article about a student DS development camp where students created games for the DS.

OK. So let me get this straight. People in Japan that want to learn to make games get a chance to work on the DS? Um, why aren't they doing this in the US? Developers here can't get their hands on DS development kits, let alone students.

Of course we don't get the system. We're not really being given a chance. What about a US development camp where people can go play and learn the DS hardware for a couple of weeks with Nintendo developers on hand to help them learn the tricks of the trade. Hell, why stop with just the US and Japan. You're not going to get the most interesting and innovative games unless you start to let more people into the magic circle of licensed developers.

Nintendo Exploiting Student Labor!

Nintendo Co., Ltd. is making games developed by students at its Nintendo Seminar 2006 available for download via the DS Station. Starting late last week and appearing every two weeks after that, the games are totally free. Games include one that has players swing a steel ball to destroy obstacles and help mice captured by cats or another one that has players shout things at inappropriate times. These games, like so many good things, are Japan only.

How Western game developers fail to score with Nintendo DS

The DS is, of course, a famously innovative console. And it seems that Japanese developers, who lean far less on movie licences or formulaic sequels (think how Mario is reinvented from console generation to generation) have been most able to get to grips with it.
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This is where things get really interesting – when you realise that the highest-scoring non-Japanese DS game is Tony Hawk's American Sk8land, in 16th position with (a very respectable) 84 per cent. We then have another Activision title, Ultimate Spiderman, in 34th place, and then another Tony Hawk's title, Downhill Jam, in 40th.

Western Devs Don't Get the DS

Tony Hawk, the West's great hope in DS gaming.